2008年10月30日 星期四

王爾德:溝渠與星空  Quotation from Oscar Wilde

朋友見我前幾天的網誌有"明月照溝渠"這句(http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=4065&prev=4115&next=4105),說令他想起王爾德(Oscar Wilde)的名言:「我們都生活在污水溝裡,但仍有人仰望星空。」(We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.)朋友感歎說當年本與我一起仰望星空,現在卻因生活所逼,不得不在污水溝似的世道裡討生活,把星空拋到一邊去了。


我說他言過其實了:把我抬得太高,把自己貶得太低。


像蘇東坡那樣與三五知己,泛舟湖上,共享清風明月,這會是多麼令人向往的寫意生活。但在這忙碌的都市裡,誰不是過著營營役役的生活呢?我們現在的生活,不僅如董橋所言是個沒有童謠的年代;而且,我們還要忍受沒有清風明月的夜晚。


基本法寫著五十年不變的除了資本主義和法治等等以外,還有:生活方式。


但這種營營役役的生活方法真的如此令我們自豪,令我們要維持它五十年不變麼?這是個嚴肅且深層的問題,這會是那些後現代思潮所指的生活革命,但我更願意這樣看,這就是中國古人所指的移風易俗。


更多的王爾德名言,見:http://hk.search.yahoo.com/search?p=We+are+all+in+the+gutter%2C+but+some+of+us+are+looking+at+the+stars.&fr=FP-tab-web-t&ei=UTF-8&meta=rst%3Dhk



A friend read my blog last week(http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=4065&prev=4115&next=4105), and sent a quotation from Oscar Wilde to me. I think it's worth sharing with you: We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.


My friend tolde me that he missed the time when we were looking at the stars, but now he has to live in the gutter and almost forget the stars because of he has to make a living.


I don't think my friend has made a fair and sound judgement. But it's true that our pace of life in HK is too fast that we forget to appreciate the beauty of nature and all kinds of things.


Our life style will be remained for 50 years, it is written in the Basic Law. But whether it is worth protecting such life style, it's a serious question.


For more quotations of Oscar Wilde, pls see: http://hk.search.yahoo.com/search?p=We+are+all+in+the+gutter%2C+but+some+of+us+are+looking+at+the+stars.&fr=FP-tab-web-t&ei=UTF-8&meta=rst%3Dhk


 


2008年10月29日 星期三

黃竹坑邨邨口巴士專線

因為黃竹坑橋底巴士專線的關係,由薄扶林和香港仔方向到黃竹坑的其他車輛都要繞道警校道才能進入黃竹坑、深灣;直接的影響是乘車時間久了,坐的士的車也貴了,故有不少居民建議取消巴士專線。


下星期一我將和運輸署等實地視察這個問題,一如我早前所估計,運輸署可能會考慮先以限時開放(如開放晚上九時後)等方式落實此事。


昨天有網友TF就此在這個網誌裡提出的意見很值得參考(見:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=4086):


建議雖然不錯, 但是有很多問題要解決:


1.  右轉燈位流量大增會導致阻失


2.  黃竹坑的巴士站會形成三路交匯處, 行車路線要大副修改才能保持現有流量


3.  現在巴士線流量已很高


能解決所產生問題的話, 我也很贊成這個建議.  不過問題不少呢。 只開放給載客的士的話, 問題可能較少





2008年10月28日 星期二

神交古人 Communicate with the Historical Figures

上星期在三聯打書釘時,翻看了一下前中大校長金耀基教授的新書《敦煌語絲》,裡面有一篇關於錢穆先生的文章。金先生問錢穆先生如果有機會的話,最想和哪幾位中國古人對談。不知各位有沒有想問這個問題?大家猜猜錢先生舉了哪幾位?


答案是:陶淵明、朱熹和曾國藩。


文章裡好像沒提到為什麼錢先生選了這三位,我看過錢先生一些著作,我估計對錢先生而言陶淵明代表的是傳統中國藝術化的人生情態,朱子代表中國博大精深的文化(偏向理智化的一面),反倒是錢先生選了曾國蕃倒令我有點意外。是曾國藩平定太平天國的事功呢還是他的為官為人?


坦白說我自己以前沒想過希望和哪位古人神交,倒是記得當年高考中國文學科時的作文題目是屈原寫了封電郵給我們,要我們回電郵給他,答覆他自殺值不值得的問題。我天馬行空,靈感如泉湧,從項羽寫起,再寫岳飛、文天祥,直到六四學生(想來我當時是初生之犢,竟敢在公開試寫六四),痛痛快快寫了篇自己認為中學幾年裡最好的作文(可惜原文不能拿回來)。


各位有沒有自己想神交的古人呢?


I read an essay collection written by the former president of CUHK, Prof. Ambrose King, at a bookshop. Prof. King interviewed the master historian Prof. Chien Mu, whom be asked which historical figures he wanted to talk with if possible.


Tao Yuan-ming of the Jin Dynasty, Zhuxi of the Song Dynasty and Zeng Guo-fan of the Qing Dynasty. Prof.Chien answered. The last choice surprised me actually.


I remember the composition topic of my high school open examination was that the famous pre-Ching Dynasty poet Qu Yuan wrote an email to us and demanded a reply to answer his question that whether his suicide was valuable. I remembered that I wrote the best composition in my secondary school time. So, may be it will be interesting to communicate with him if possible.


So, my dear friend, who will be your choice?



 


黃竹坑邨清拆工程(3) Demolition Work of Wong Chuk Hang Estate(3)

今天終於收到房署的補充資料:上次我在會議提出議程討論黃竹坑邨清拆對區內居民的影響,但誰知房署卻一點也不尊重區議會,僅提供極少資料。最後會議決定要求部門補充資料,才會有今天這份收到的較有用的文件(但也僅是半頁!)。


營造商現正清理廢物,下月就會清拆石棉這種有害物料,請參考環保署相關資料:


http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/tc_chi/environmentinhk/air/guide_ref/asbestos_removal_01.html


我在會上已特別點出要求小心處理石棉,以免影響居民健康。


12月起會按三個階段清拆黃竹坑邨,第一期會先拆卸第3座,第7座及第10座;第二期拆卸第4座;最後則拆除其餘的座數。如果大家有留意的話,可發現第10座現在正在搭棚架,準備開始拆卸工程。


我會繼續緊密監察清拆過程,以防工程造成噪音、空氣污染及工程車量影響區內交通。大家如發現工程有何不妥或影響到你的日常生活,歡迎與我聯絡。


我早前的跟進,可見:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3657 and http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3096


Finally I got some useful information from the Housing Dept(HD)! I raised a motion in the Council to discuss the demolition project, the HD provided so little information that the Council concluded to demand the department to provide in details so let the public know what's going on with the project.


The contractor now is cleaning out the wasted and will clear the asbestos(石棉), a poisoned material(Ref.: http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/guide_ref/asbestos_removal_01.html ) in November.


They will demolish the buildings from December. There will be 3 stages of the work, the 3rd, 7th and 10th blocks will be demolish at the first stage; then the 4th at the 2nd stage, the remains will be done at the 3rd stage. The work will last to Oct. 2009.


I'll keep monitoring the impact of the demolition work to avoid the noise and air pollution and the traffic control as well.


My previous follow ups, pls see: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3657 and http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3096




2008年10月27日 星期一

IN13:無限的我 IN13:INfinite ME

星期天我參加了一個由IN13主辦的名為"無限的我"的活動,服務的對象是有特殊需要和智障的兒童,活動地點是音樂農莊。我也是第一次去呢。(http://www.musicfarm.com.hk/ index2.htm) 


I went to the Music Farm to participate an activity held by the IN13, a group formed by volunteers, and the theme of this activity is 'INfinite ME', aiming to help children who have special need or disabled, and spread a meessage that there are infinite possibilities in everyone of us to fulfill our dream.


我和另外一位元朗區區議員麥業成先生,簡單致辭,我希望大家以平等的心態和眼光對待所有人,包括有特別需要的朋友,就如音符一樣,每個都不同,但合在一起就能奏出美麗而動聽的樂章。


I was one of the speaker and I said everyone of us is qunite and equal, just like the musical notation, if we could treat each other equally, we could make up as a beautiful song.


下面這位歌手,王靖,大家可能在銅鑼灣和旺角行人專用區見過,他唱得非常投入,尤其是演繹他自己作詞作曲的作品的時候。


Here we had the performer, Jing Wong, who sometimes sings in Causeway Bay and Mongkok. His performance was great, especially when he sang his own work.






2008年10月23日 星期四

港鐵第二輪諮詢會(2) Public Consultation Meeting on SIL(2)

今晚的諮詢會(ref: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=4086),除了我以外,有六七名居民提出同樣的問題:為何深灣沒有出入口?


港鐵居然仍然假設離港鐵站五百米外的居民大多會乘車,而不是步行前往到港鐵站,以此為由否定深灣的出入口;完全不理會深灣,尤其是雅濤閣居民的訴求和權益。


莫非,真的如早前一位居民所指:港鐵把深灣當成深山!真是可怒也!


我一定會繼續反映我們的訴求,爭取深灣居民應有的權益!


The consultation meeting was held tonight(ref: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=4086), there were 6 or 7 residents asked the same question with me: Why there's no exit near by Shum Wan?


The representative of the MTR still holds the assumption that most residents will not walk to the station, but take bus or mini bus to the MTR station if the distance between the satation and the residential building is over 500 meters. So it's the reason why there's no exit at Shum Wan!


Such answer totally unacceptable coz it ignores our demand and right and interest to have a convenient MTR exit!


I'll keep following this issue to fight for our right and interest of Shum Wan residents.




2008年10月22日 星期三

欲寄相思千里月 Full Moon for Sharing

Full Moon for sharing, the moon reminds me some lines of traditional poems. I'm sorry I'm not able to translate the poems into English. 


下面是我早前拍下的滿月。第一張照片讓人想起"明月照溝渠"外,還有杜牧下面這首詩:


       


前山極遠碧雲合


清夜一聲白雲微


欲寄相思千里月


溪邊殘照雨霏霏


以及,前些天偶然在書裡看到的這兩句晉代女詩人鮑令暉(鮑照之妹)的詩句:


秋歌


秋風入窗裏


羅帳起飄揚


仰頭看明月


寄情千里光


這裡可有她的全集:http://www.yasue.cc/bau_ling_fai.html





2008年10月21日 星期二

施政報告地區諮詢會:潘副局長/Kitty Poon Under Secretary/Kitty Poon

I'm sorry. I have no time to provide an English version.


今早到雅濤閣派發單張,晚上本來打算繼續派發的,但因為和同事分工,去了鴨脷洲邨舉辦的施政報告地區諮詢會,故只能推遲到明晚了。明早則要到南濤閣派發單張。


這次施政報告地區諮詢會有個新猶:新任的副局長為特首推廣施政理念和落區聽取民意。


意外的是,剛好這次來的是環境局副局長潘潔博士。


說意外和剛好,因為潘博士在中大政政系念PhD時曾任導師(Tutor),我們當時直呼其名叫她Kitty,我也曾修讀過兩科由她任tutor的課程(分別是香港的民主化/國際政治),故我可以說是她的學生。


今晚我又剛好被抽中籤可以發言,因為金融風暴及生果金等已有人發言,故我提了以下數個問題:


1. 因是地區諮詢,南區地鐵是南區最大的訴求,我問她作為環境局副局長,為何南區地鐵不採用更環保的地下隧道模式,卻仍然採用高架橋興建。


2. 她負責環保政策,她除了改善本港空氣質素等問題外,如何與珠江三角洲一帶城市合作,解決本港其中一個大的污染源?


3. 承接我前一個的提問者,我問政府如何落實地區政制改革,如何強化民政專員和區議會的角色,使區議會享有當年市政局的職權,以更好地推行地區施政。


4. 因潘潔是政治學博士,加上今年政政報告罕有的提及加強與台灣的關係,我問她香港如何發揮作為中介的角色,促進中國統一大業,而不是像以往般由新加坡專美。


以上四點,可惜我這位潘老師花了九成時間答她熟悉的第二題;南區地鐵只以"知道做過好多研討會",其餘兩題則石沉大海,沒有一言一語的回應。如果潘潔是公務員,我絲毫不會覺得奇怪,但可惜她作為政治委任副局長,說話卻拘謹得比公務員還要小心冀冀,絲毫不見當年暢所欲言的tutor  Kitty Poon。


畢竟是位置不一樣了,不再方便在公開場合那樣說話了吧;而且剛上任不久,或許仍未習慣出席這類的諮詢會。


潘副局長畢竟無法再如Kitty  Poon那樣親切,高官的言論也無復學者的清高;就如現在的我,也日漸失去了讓我懷念的書生意氣,以及,那份不知天高地厚的年少輕狂。


2008年10月19日 星期日

港鐵第二輪諮詢會 Public Consultation Meeting on SIL

These are the leaflets we are distributing these days at WCH. We are going to have a second round public consultation meeting on the SIL project of MTR, details of this meeting is as follows:


Date: 23 Oct. 2008


Time: 8-9:30pm

Venue: Kai Fong community welfare Centre (G floor of Southwave Court)


中文請見單張內容。


It's the backpage of the leaflet, which is a short report on my community works, you could refer to them at http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=4007&prev=4011&next=3989  and  http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=4067&prev=4070&next=4045 and http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3331


Of course, you could know more about my works at this blog.


單張背面是近期的地區工作,詳情可見: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=4007&prev=4011&next=3989  and  http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=4067&prev=4070&next=4045 and http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3331



2008年10月17日 星期五

行為藝術還是藝術人生? Performance Art or Artistic Life?

Pls stroll down for the English abstract.


早前寫的《做一年》的行為藝術,提及謝偉俊身穿超人裝束抗議,以及長毛抬棺材又算不算的問題,(現在或可加上"黃毓文擲蕉")見下:


http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/searchblog_art?p=%E8%A1%8C%E7%82%BA%E8%97%9D%E8%A1%93&my=1


但我下面舉的例子,其性質或許可說是完全不同於以上三位尊貴的議員。這位被譽為超凡入聖的母親,有下面這樣"五十年不變"的生活方式,我引述譯者徐梵澄先生的簡介原文如下:


五十年間,這位母親,每日早晨六時一刻,必在其寓所二層臨街的涼台上與大眾相見。院友或路人時已靜立街上仰望她,她向每人看一看,便退去了。晦陰晴雨皆如此,未嘗間間斷過一日,每日未嘗或遲或早一分鐘。其餘每日上午每天授花一朵不論。其他工作更不必說。




這位被印度信徒尊稱為"母親"的本是法國貴族,生於1878年,署名Mira,中譯密那,曾旅居日本,人稱"美良",密那氏曾希望遠赴中國,但因北洋軍閥混戰未果;自1914年定居印度凡六十年,1973年逝世,享年96歲。


我買入此書,僅僅因為譯者是學通中印的徐梵澄先生。裡面大多是類似的話:


1. 勇猛是心靈高貴之表相。但勇猛必須沉靜,能自克,寬大,仁慈。


2. 清醒從來未嘗有害於任何人。


3. 和平當浩大,寂靜當深沉,寧定當不可動搖,對"神明"的信托當只加增上。


4. 所當達的共同目標,是一進展底宇宙和諧之來臨。


5.  有兩件事你永不當忘記:室利阿羅頻多的大慈,和"母親"的大愛,以此二者,你方進行戰鬥,沉定地,耐心地,直到仇敵皆確已擊敗,而"勝利"永遠決定了。


外則勇猛,內則平靜,對"神聖恩慈"有堅定不搖底信賴。


一定是我悟性太差,我讀的時候常常想起中學時看的中靈雞湯以及一些傳統修身格言,無法與這些話的智慧產生共鳴。更重要的是,如果視為宗教類的書,它無法安慰和撫平我的心靈。


但有一樣我可以肯定的是:這位母親過的是一種藝術化的人生。就她以一生成就的造詣/境界而言,她的一生就是偉大的行為藝術作品。


 


I wrote a blog article on performance art in July, you may refer to :


http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/searchblog_art?p=%E8%A1%8C%E7%82%BA%E8%97%9D%E8%A1%93&my=1


This time I like to share with you a legend of one holy woman, named Mira, who was regarded as " The Holy Mother" in India. She was an French aristocrat who settled in India since 1914 until she died in 1973, at the age of 96. 


The following is one example to let us know her artistic life:


For over 50 years, every morning she waked up at 0615 and then met people who came to greet and worship her. She glanced them and then left. She had been doing this 'thing' exactly the same for over 50 years, every morning, without any disturbance nor any change.And, she had been doing other things exactly the same for over 50 years as well.


I regard it as a truly masterpiece of performance art. She takes her own life as The Work.


107號巴士假日班次提早 Rt.107 Bus Frequency


繼107號移前到陳白沙中學後(http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/searchblog_art?p=107&my=1),昨天收到傳真,我們要求的統一107號平日和星期日班次的爭取終於獲接納,並將於19/1 0開始落實


107號平日的頭班車是0645,假日則是0700,現在假日終於也可和平日看齊了。


這是類似雞肋的小個案,食之無味,棄之可惜,但對有需要的使用者而言,提早了班次畢竟也是好事。


參考:http://www.kmb.hk/chinese.php?page=search&prog=route_no.php&route_no=107


The Transport Dept and the bus company finally accepted our suggestion to make the Sunday and holiday frequency of the route 107 bus put into service from 0645, just like weekdays. It puts into service from 0700am now.


So, we will have one more bus frequency from the coming Sunday. Tough it's a minor schedule change, I still hope it could help those passengers who need to take the bus in the very early morning.


Ref: http://www.kmb.hk/chinese.php?page=search&prog=route_no.php&route_no=107


2008年10月16日 星期四

[轉] 次按與CDS危機由來 Cause of the Financial Crisis

我的經濟學只有中五水平,對本地和國際金融制度及運作等知識更幾無所知。所以才會偶爾刻意去看些經濟類的書和文章惡補一下,可參考我早前的網誌:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3152&prev=3979&next=3961

看了下面的文章,像上了一堂經濟課,早前看的相關文章對這次的金融危機成因說得沒這麼清楚。轉自:

http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/boxof-hope/article?mid=3877&prev=3919&next=3843&suc=1



I'm not good at economic analyse, and worse at the financial system.  It's the reason why I need to read books and articles on this subject to improve my understanding in this important aspect of modern city like HK. Pls refer to :


http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3152&prev=3979&next=3961


The following article is the clearest one to let me know what's the cause of this financial crisis. I'm sorry, it's in Chinese only.



 

你知道美國金融危機有多嚴重嗎?


對金融危機最普遍的官方解釋是次貸問題,然而次貸總共不過幾千億,而美國政府救市資金早已到了萬億以上,為什麼危機還是看不到頭?  
  
有文章指出危機的根源是金融機構採用「槓桿」交易;另一些專家指出金融危機的背後是62萬億的信用違約掉期(Credit Default Swap, CDS)。那麼,次貸,槓桿和CDS之間究竟是什麼關係?它們之間通過什麼樣的相互作用產生了今天的金融危機?  
    
為通俗易懂起見,我們使用了幾個假想的例子。有不恰當之處歡迎批評討論。  
  

一、 槓桿:  
    
目前,許多投資銀行為了賺取暴利,採用20-30倍槓桿操作,假設一個銀行A自身資產為30億,30倍槓桿就是900億。也就是說,這個銀行A以30 億資產為抵押去借900億的資金用於投資,假如投資盈利5%,那麼A就獲得45億的盈利,相對於A自身資產而言,這是150%的暴利。反過來,假如投資虧損5%,那麼銀行A賠光了自己的全部資產還欠15億。  
  
二、 CDS合同:  
  
由於槓桿操作高風險,所以按照正常的規定,銀行不進行這樣的冒險操作。所以就有人想出一個辦法,把槓桿投資拿去做「保險」。這種保險就叫CDS。  

比如,銀行A為了逃避槓桿風險就找到了機構B。機構B可能是另一家銀行,也可能是保險公司,諸如此類。   
  
A對B說,你幫我的貸款做違約保險怎麼樣,我每年付你保險費5千萬,連續10年,總共5億,假如我的投資沒有違約,那麼這筆保險費你就白拿了,假如違約,你要為我賠償。  
  
A想,如果不違約,我可以賺45億,這裡面拿出5億用來做保險,我還能淨賺40億。如果有違約,反正有保險來賠。所以對A而言這是一筆只賺不賠的生意。  
  
B是一個精明的人,沒有立即答應A的邀請,而是回去做了一個統計分析,發現違約的情況不到1%。如果做一百家的生意,總計可以拿到500億的保險金,如果其中一家違約,賠償額最多不過50億,即使兩家違約,還能賺400億。  

A,B雙方都認為這筆買賣對自己有利,因此立即拍板成交,皆大歡喜。
  
三、CDS市場:  
  
B做了這筆保險生意之後,C在旁邊眼紅了。C就跑到B那邊說,你把這100個CDS賣給我怎麼樣,每個合同給你2億,總共200億。B想,我的400億要10年才能拿到,現在一轉手就有200億,而且沒有風險,何樂而不為,因此B和C馬上就成交了。
  
這樣一來,CDS就像股票一樣流到了金融市場之上,可以交易和買賣。實際上C拿到這批CDS之後,並不想等上10年再收取200億,而是把它掛牌出售,標價220億;D看到這個產品,算了一下,400億減去220億,還有180億可賺,這是「原始股」,不算貴,立即買了下來。一轉手,C賺了20億。從此以後,這些CDS就在市場上反覆的抄,現在CDS的市場總值已經抄到了62萬億美元。
  
四、次貸:  
  
上面A,B,C,D,E,F....都在賺大錢,那麼這些錢到底從那裡冒出來的呢?從根本上說,這些錢來自A以及同A相仿的投資人的盈利。而他們的盈利大半來自美國的次級貸款。人們說次貸危機是由於把錢借給了窮人。  
  
筆者對這個說法不以為然。筆者以為,次貸主要是給了普通的美國房產投資人。這些人的經濟實力本來只夠買自己的一套住房,但是看到房價快速上漲,動起了房產投機的主意。他們把自己的房子抵押出去,貸款買投資房。這類貸款利息要在8%-9%以上,憑他們自己的收入很難對付,不過他們可以繼續把房子抵押給銀行,借錢付利息,空手套白狼。
  
此時A很高興,他的投資在為他賺錢;B也很高興,市場違約率很低,保險生意可以繼續做;後面的C,D,E,F等等都跟著賺錢。  
  
五、次貸危機:
  
  
房價漲到一定的程度就漲不上去了,後面沒人接盤。此時房產投機人急得像熱鍋上的螞蟻。房子賣不出去,高額利息要不停的付,終於到了走頭無路的一天,把房子甩給了銀行。此時違約就發生了。  
  
此時A感到一絲遺憾,大錢賺不著了,不過也虧不到那裡,反正有B做保險。B也不擔心,反正保險已經賣給了C。  
  
那麼現在這份CDS保險在那裡呢,在G手裡。G剛從F手裡花了300億買下了100個CDS,還沒來得及轉手,突然接到消息,這批CDS被降級,其中有20個違約,大大超出原先估計的1%到2%的違約率。每個違約要支付50億的保險金,總共支出達1000億。加上300億CDS收購費,G的虧損總計達 1300億。雖然G是全美排行前10名的大機構,也經不起如此巨大的虧損。因此G瀕臨倒閉。


六、金融危機:  
  
如果G倒閉,那麼A花費5億美元買的保險就泡了湯,更糟糕的是,由於A採用了槓桿原理投資,根據前面的分析,A賠光全部資產也不夠還債。因此A立即面臨破產的危險。除了A之外,還有A2,A3,...,A20,統統要準備倒閉。因此G,A,A2,...,A20一起來到美國財政部長面前,一把鼻涕一把眼淚地遊說,G萬萬不能倒閉,它一倒閉大家都完了。財政部長心一軟,就把G給國有化了,此後A,...,A20的保險金總計1000億美元全部由美國納稅人支付。
  
七、美元危機:  
    
上面講到的100個CDS的市場價是300億。而CDS市場總值是62萬億,假設其中有10%的違約,那麼就有6萬億的違約CDS。這個數字是300 億的200倍。如果說美國政府收購價值300億的CDS之後要賠出1000億。那麼對於剩下的那些違約CDS,美國政府就要賠出20萬億。如果不賠,就要看著A20,A21,A22等等一個接一個倒閉。無論採取什麼措施,美元大貶值已經不可避免。
  
以上計算所用的假設和數字同實際情況會有出入,但美國金融危機的嚴重性無法低估。

-------------------

2008年10月14日 星期二

施政報告和黃竹坑規劃 Policy Address and Planning of Wong Chuk Hang

今天行政長官曾蔭權的施政報告第82節提及黃竹坑未來規劃,方向是發展私營醫院(見下)。我早前曾有一篇關於養和醫院可能遷到黃竹坑的網誌,見http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3491


82.       為鞏固和發展香港成為區內尖端醫療中心,我們必須在硬件和軟件方面有完整的配套措施。在硬件方面,我們會鼓勵和便利私營醫院的發展。政府正物色合適的土地,初步包括黃竹坑、將軍澳、大埔、北大嶼山等地區,供私營醫院發展之用。我們會邀請私營機構向政府提交發展醫院的意向及建議。


施政報告全文見:http://www.policyaddress.gov.hk/08-09/chi/policy.html


黃竹坑的整體規劃前景似不錯,但至今十多個酒店項目,動工的只有兩座;其餘仍按兵不動,最近更有發展商表示因酒店業不景而會繼續擱置項目,甚至改為普通商業大廈。因現在的金融危機,未來一兩年的經濟可能更不明朗,真令人擔心未來的黃竹坑會否由傳統工廠區成功轉型為酒店商業地帶。


Chief Executive Donald Tsang delivered his policy address today, he mentioned Wong Chuk Hang in the following section, focusing on promoting the development of private health care.


82.    To consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's position as a prime medical centre in the region, we must have comprehensive measures in place to upgrade our hardware and software.  For the hardware, we will encourage and facilitate the development of private hospitals.  The Government is identifying suitable sites initially including the Wong Chuk Hang, Tseung Kwan O, Tai Po and North Lantau areas.  We will invite expressions of interest and proposals on hospital development from the private sector.



You could visit this site for the entire policy address: http://www.policyaddress.gov.hk/08-09/eng/p82.html 


For reference, you may refer to my previous blog about the famous private hospital, the Hong Kong Sanatorium and Hospital , may move in Wong Chuk Hang: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3491


南區開通過境巴士 Cross Border Bus Service in Southern District

上星期五南區開通了第一條過境巴士專線,雖說站點在我的選區逸港居,但我可不敢邀功說自己成功爭取開辦此線。這是先前兩屆的區議會開始跟進,現在才成事的項目。


相信這可便利南區居民來往深港兩地。這條專線的詳情見下:


The first cross border express from the Southern District to Shen Zhen put into service last Friday. We could take this bus from Ocean Court to Shen Zhen airport now.

 

The bus starts at 0740, 0840 and 1830, and the bus fee are $50, $70 and $110 respectively.
For detailed information of the service, you could all 2982 8111 and 2230 3030.

 


香港仔往深圳機場快線



1. 班次及票價


















開車時間

上站點

落站點

單程票價

07:40



香港仔逸港居(觀海徑)


深圳灣


寶安車站

深圳機場

往深圳灣——$50

往寶安車站——$70

往深圳機場——$110

08:40

18:30


2. 售票點

















公司名稱

地址

電話

天運旅遊有限公司

香港仔海傍道3號逸港居4號鋪

2982 8111

大利旅行社有限公司

香港仔大道223號利群商業中心11樓

2230 3030

資料引自:http://www.chinalink.hk/new7.html


 


2008年10月10日 星期五

與運輸署跟進黃竹坑交通 Site Visit with Transport Dept at WCH

Mr Lee of the Transport Dept and I had a joint site visit on Wednesday, the following are the issues I raise for concerns.(Pls refer tohttp://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3331


前天和運輸署的李先生到區內實地視察,跟進好幾項交通問題。李先生接替上次和我實地視察的鍾先生(詳見:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3331),李先生經驗更豐富,希望能儘早跟進我們的訴求。


下面幾張是應因城巴司機及居民提出的訴求,應加強南朗山道和警校交界的安全,因為不時有行人橫過馬路及從警校道駛往南濤山道的車輛,因有轉彎處及巴士站迴旋處,城巴司機擔心因此被阻礙視線而發生交通意外。


李先生也認同有此問題,故很爽快答應會在約3星期後重劃該處路面的"影線",以引導車流稍為靠左線行駛......


此外則是跟進從警校道轉上南朗山道的問題,我建議將學童指示牌稍移前,提醒司機小心慢駛;此外,也可考慮加裝"慢駛"指示牌。不過這類指示牌作用還是有限,重要的始終是司機的意識。


The first one is the potential danger at the junction of the Police School Road and the Nam Long Sham Road.





下面則是繼續跟進區內電單車車位問題,7月時鍾先生已說"研究"我的提議,但至今卻不聞任何研究進度和結果。唉.....


The second is the motorbike parking space issue. 3 month ago, the dept told me last time it will "study" my concerned proposal, but we don't have any proceeding report or result of such study.



下面也是老問題了,我希望將白線向後移,使轉入深灣道的車輛有較多空間,安全駛入深灣道,減少與轉出深灣道的車輛正面衝撞的危險。(詳見:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=2245)


The third one is concerning the potential danger at the junction of Nam Long Shan Road and the Shum Wan Road. Pls refer to http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=2245





下面則是跟進無障礙通道的進度,見:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3331 及http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3989


The fourth one is the free access at Welfare Road. Pls refer to http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3331 and http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3989



The last one is quite an important issue, I've proposed setting up a crossing facility at Shum Wan Road near the supermarket for resident in order to prevent accident. Pls refer to http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3197


最後則是個大問題,為保障居民,尤其是長者的安全,我爭取在深灣道加設行人過路設施。此事因選舉而推遲展開,我稍後會開始做問卷調查。我早前的宣傳,詳見:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3197



2008年10月8日 星期三

幾項地區個案的進展 Community Work(4)

Pls stroll down for the English version.


再向各位報告一下區內幾個小個案的進展如下(先前的跟進,見:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3939):


1.  5月時和運輸署一起視察惠福道後,惠福道的無障礙通道已初步完成,但據復康中心使用輪椅的院友親身試過後,發現因施工問題而仍有高低不平的問題,尤其不便利電動輪椅的上下小斜坡;此外,轉彎位也尚未還原到原來的大小;請參考我早前的網誌:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3331


2.  深灣道路面不平的路段已平整,以防車輛顛簸對孕婦、長者等市民造成危險;不過,這次只屬臨時性質的工程,路政署之後將有永久維持工程,以期徹底解決問題。



3. 前黃竹坑邨內的枯樹已被清走。請參考我早前的網誌:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3916&fid=-1&action=next


4. 深灣道枯竹已清走,但我仍質疑其維修工程未能固定斜坡。請參考我早前的網誌:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3939


5. 珍寶閣門前的消防水龍頭已加上新消防栓。請參考我早前的網誌:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3916&prev=3907&next=3912 


http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3939


 


Here are the latest progress of some community cases we've been following(My previous follow ups, pls refer to : http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3939):


1. One of the vamp construction I suggested in May was completed to allow disabled people to access (Pls refer to: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3331)


2. The broken surface of Shum Wan Road has been repaired, pls refer to the picture below;


3. Dead trees insdie the Ex-WCH Estate were clear away to prevent accident;pls refer to http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3916&fid=-1&action=next


4. Dead Trees on the Shum Wan Road slope were cut away too; pls refer to http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3939


5. The tap of the fire hydrant in front of Jumbo Court was added; pls refer to http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3916&prev=3907&next=3912 


http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3939


2008年10月7日 星期二

推介網誌:國慶煙花 Pictures of Fireworks

無意中發現呢個網誌,有好多好靚既國慶煙花相,強烈推介:


You could find out so many beautiful pictures in this blog:


http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/eukw1/article?mid=5917


 


 


2008年10月5日 星期日

補一補經濟學 Coase : Essays on Economics and Economists

[jacket image]

 

I read R. H. Coase's book Essays on Economics and Economists long ago, since I've been reading George J. Stigler's Tanner Lecuture, I like to share with you some thoughts I wrote after I'v read Coase's essays. And I'll share with you my thought after I've finished Stigler's lecture later.

 

A big name as Coase,  as it is, just like F. A. Hayek in neoliberalism, and often appear in essay of Steven Cheung and 林行止, However, I've not read Coase's work before.

But I find Coase an interesting guy. As he shows in the preface of the book: He writes: My desire to publish this collection of essays is no doubt largely motivated by vanity. But as Adam Smith pointed out, characteristics of human beings which appear to us as in some degree disagreeable may nonetheless bring social benefits. I hope this will be in this case.


….


And he goes on writing, after he says that some of his essays are different from most economists, that 'I am hoping that having these essays read wil increase my market share.'


The very essay I'm interested in is Adam Smith's View of Man, and the other one on Adam Smith, named The Wealth of Nations. Because my lack of knowledge in economics. I think it's perfect to read Coase,  a Nobel Prize laureate in economics,  to introduce Smith's theory and his moral philosophy, which  I'm not familiar with and I want to know more, especially his moral theory, which is important in the history of western political philosophy.


The essays are quite easy to read. They have the quality worth praising, which a style like Smith's, (as Coase says) a style can be read with pleasure. And the English is simple, clear and amusing. And, it suits me, a reader who's knowledge of economics is limited to high school student, so well that keeps reading. (Coase critics the modern economists that they are either incapable of writing simple English or have decided that they have more to gain by concealment. P.77)


I have a point of prejudge that it's odd and not pervasive enough to use the economic theory as a method to analyze political phenomena. It almost become my stubborn belief that politics is much more than self-interest, and should be study beyond this single one perspective or assumption of economic theory.


Politics is a field of passion, compassion, ambition, calculation, seriousness and profoundness, which go beyond self-interest. You just can't explain so many political phenomena if just look at them with the glass of self-interest. Of couse, I haven't  think this question seriously and can't offer a sound argument to disagree the mainstream neo-political economics theory.


But I'm happy to find out that Coase, a  Nobel Prize laureate in economics(!), seems to share the same idea with me, at least he thinks that is 'problematical'. In the essay George J. Stigler, he comments Stigler's approach, which using utility-maximizing assumption as the tool to analyze the workings of a political system:


Just how much political behavior can be explained in this way seems to me problematical. As I watch people who are engaged in political activities, whether through voting in a parliamentary system or by taking part in political, including revolutionary, movements, supporting with enthusiasm policies which seem likely to greatly harm or even destroy their countries and perhaps themselves, I find it difficult to believe that such behavior is best described as rational utility-maximizing. However, that does not mean that in some areas, and particularly those of most interest to an economist, Stigler's approach may not have great explanatory power. And I think it does. The Swedish Academy spoke with caution about his analysis of the causes of regulation: 'it is still too early to assess its ultimate scope.' (P.206)


2008年10月3日 星期五

國慶雜感:毒奶粉和神七升空 Not the worst nor the Best Time


It's my thought about the 59 anniversary of PRC, I"m sorry that I can't translate this entire essay into English. Talking about the scandal of poisoned milk and dairy products and the space technology achievement, my main point of this blog article is that it's not the worst time of China nor it's the best time of it.


I believe that there are lot of aims, greater than the space technology achievement, that China could achieve, and there are going to have more bigger scandal will be in China. Simply because for the past 3 decades, our country has huge improvement in the senses of material development, but still far lack behind of the moral sense development and the institutional progress.


這不是最好的時代,這也不是最壞的時代......


本來想在國慶日把這篇網誌post出來的,但太忙了,沒時間寫完,所以今天繼續寫一點。


今年國慶時我寫的雜感曾引用這Dickens的名言,(見http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=873)這次我覺得反用其意更加適合。


神七升空,引起新一輪的愛國熱情,雖非舉世無雙,但也是屈指可數有能力做到的國家,這畢竟是值得我們中國人驕傲的壯舉!


但我希望也相信,這尚不是最好的時代,中國還可以做得更好。


猶記得我讀中學時,有一隊研究航空技術的科研人員到學校參觀,我趁機提問他們到底中國的航空技術與美俄的差距有多少。那位工程師亳不為忤,坦率回答說至少還相差三四十年!


現在十多年過去了,神七已經升空。我想,中國的航空技術與美餓的差距已大大縮小了吧。


不過就如信報社評所指,毒奶粉事件多多少少衝淡了這次本應舉國乃至舉世注目的成就。但只要冷靜細想,這麼多年來,假酒、毒豉油、問題水產乃至糧油和大米(可以參考:http://forum4.hkgolden.com/view.aspx?message=1380437),造假者暴富,置國民生命安全而不顧,而國家卻對此睜一隻眼閉一隻眼,到出事了就抓一批人"祭旗",風聲一過,一切還不是照舊?


猶記得當年朱鎔基總理苦口婆心對內地會計師說,他只有一個要求,就是不要做假帳;猶記得他怒斥興建豆腐渣工程是王八蛋工程;猶記得他指為了打擊貪官污史,已準備了100口棺材,其中一口留給自己......(參考我早前網誌:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=1109)


但一如前述,我不希望,但相信,將來,還會有更壞更驚人醜聞被揭露出來。


野蠻其體魄,文明其精神,奧運時我曾以毛澤東此語寄語中國(見:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=3439),現在神七升空了,科技進步了,人民物質生活大大提升了,這此都是值得我們中國人驕傲的成就。但我們的精神文明呢?我們的道德秩序呢?我們的官場文化呢?


有一次我回大陸,親耳聽親戚說他這樣教導剛任公務員的兒子:我們一直送錢給官用,現在你做官了,也是時候等別人送錢給我們用了!


所謂一葉知秋,見微知著,這就是時下內地民眾的道德秩序,這就是我們官場文化的冰山一角。


寫到這裡,心情複雜沉重,僅以去年國慶時的雜感為此文作結:


如何理解30年來經濟改革的政治意涵,如何理解人作為經濟動物,但同時作為高揚個人自主的,追求個人權力(權利?!)的政治動物的另一面?我們尤其應緊記的是,自文革後,中國人早已陷入虛無主義的深淵,中國人不相信法律,不再相信傳統道德,也不相信現在有什麼新道德可以束縛自己,有的只是個人權力(權利?!)意識的無限伸張。這種個人權力無限伸張的惡果早已在經濟領域暴露無疑:看那些以權錢交易或製造假劣違冒產品等等不義行為而致富但卻亳無愧色的人吧。


施特勞思提醒我們說,虛無主義是現代性的最大病症。中國人早已病入膏肓。這樣的病症若暴發在政治領域,你能想像那是何種情形嗎?


(全文見:http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/our_wch/article?mid=873)


2008年10月2日 星期四

協助雷曼兄弟產品苦主 Helping Investors of Lehman Brothers Products

民主黨近期都忙著協助雷曼兄弟苦主 ,甘乃威是這次行動的負責人。我們地區辦事處也一斷接到市民求助,我辦事處也轉介了不少個案到民主黨總部跟進。


最新的跟進進度請留意民主黨的網站:http://www.dphk.org/ 裡面有要求協助的登記表格等資料。


南區的市民,如果受此困擾,歡迎與我們任何一間辦事處聯絡跟進。


Democratic Party has beening working hard to help investors of Lehman Brothers products for the past three seeks. The newly elected legislator Mr Kam Nai Wai is the person in charge of this issue. Many investors come to our local offices for help, and my office has offered some cases to headquarter of my party.


For the latest follow up, pls visit my party's website at: http://www.dphk.org/


If you are one of the investors and troubled by the products, pls come to us and we'll try to help.